Table of Contents
Business continuity, risk mitigation, loss estimation, and performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE)
Fire following earthquake
Scawthorn, C., 2019. Act Now Before it is Too Late: Aggressively Expand and Enhance our High-Pressure Emergency Firefighting Water System. City and County of San Francisco 2018-2019 Civil Grand Jury. Seal of the City and Country of San Francisco,
Scawthorn, C., 2018. Fire following the Mw 7.05 HayWired earthquake scenario. In Detweiler, S.T., and Wein, A.M., eds., The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Engineering Implications. Scientific Investigations Report 2017–5013–I–Q. Reston, VA: United States Geological Survey, ch. P, p. 367-400,
Anderson D., Davidson RA, Himoto K, and Scawthorn C. 2016. “Statistical Modeling of Fire Occurrence Using Data from the Tōhoku, Japan Earthquake and Tsunami.” Risk Analysis 36(2):378-95.
Fragility and vulnerability of buildings
Porter, K., and Thomas, E. (2019). First the earth quakes, then the law suits. American Bar Association Probate and Property 33 (6):34-40.
Porter, K.A., 2017. A Beginner’s Guide to Fragility, Vulnerability, and Risk. 103 pp.,
Porter, K., 2017. When addressing epistemic uncertainty in a lognormal fragility function, how should one adjust the median? Paper 2617, Proc., 16th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Santiago Chile, January 9 to 13, 2017
Porter, K.A., 2015. Dollars, deaths, and downtime: understand your building’s seismic risk and how to evaluate it. A presentation to SEAOSC Strengthening Our Cities Summit 5 Nov 2015, Los Angeles, CA.
SPA Risk LLC and Henderson Creative, 2014. Mobile Homes in Earthquakes: How to Protect your Home and Family. Prepared for California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services and Earthquake Engineering Research Institute. SPA Risk LLC, Denver CO, 2 pp,
Cho, I.H. and K.A. Porter, 2013. Three Techniques for Modeling Building Classes using Moment Matching. SESM 13-01, Structural Engineering and Structural Mechanics Program, Department of Civil Environmental and Architectural Engineering, University of Colorado Boulder,
K. Farokhnia and K.A. Porter, 2012. Estimating the Non-Structural Seismic Vulnerability of Building Categories. Proc. 15th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Lisbon, 24-28 Sep 2012, paper number 3900,
Porter, K.A., K. Farokhnia, I.H. Cho, T. Rossetto, I. Ioannou, D. Grant, K. Jaiswal, D. Wald, D. D’Ayala, A. Meslem, E. So, A.S. Kiremidjian & H.Y. Noh, 2012 (expected). Global vulnerability estimation methods for the Global Earthquake Model. Proc. 15th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Lisbon, 24-28 Sep 2012, paper number 4504,
Porter, K.A., 2011. Practical Development and Application of Fragility Functions. A lecture to the University of Colorado at Boulder’s Department of Civil Engineering, graduate course CVEN 5835-02 SPTPS: Nonlinear Structural Analysis, Theory & Applications. April 19, 2011.
Porter, K.A., 2010. Cracking an open safe: uncertainty in HAZUS-based seismic vulnerability functions. Earthquake Spectra, 26 (3), 893-900
Porter, K.A., G. Johnson, R. Sheppard, and R. Bachman, 2010. Fragility of mechanical, electrical, and plumbing equipment. Earthquake Spectra 26 (2) 451-472,
Porter, K.A., and K. Cobeen, 2009. Loss estimates for large soft-story wood frame buildings in San Francisco. Proc. ATC & SEI 2009 Conference on Improving the Seismic Performance of Existing Buildings and Other Structures. Dec 9-11, 2009, San Francisco, CA,
Porter, K.A., 2009. Component Fragility Functions for Older Woodframe Construction. SPA Risk LLC, Denver CO,
Porter, K.A., 2009. Seismic Vulnerability of Four Soft-Story Woodframe Index Buildings and their Retrofits. SPA Risk LLC, Denver CO,
Porter, K.A., 2009. CAPSS Soft-Story Loss Study. SPA Risk LLC, Denver CO,
Samant, L.D., K. Porter, K. Cobeen, L.T. Tobin, L. Kornfield, H. Seligson, S. Alejandrino, and J. Kidd, 2009. Mitigating San Francisco’s soft-story building problem. Proc. ATC & SEI 2009 Conference on Improving the Seismic Performance of Existing Buildings and Other Structures. Dec 9-11, 2009, San Francisco, CA, paper 109,
Porter, K.A., 2009. Cracking an open safe: more HAZUS vulnerability functions in terms of structure-independent spectral acceleration. Earthquake Spectra 25 (3), 607-618,
Porter, K.A., 2009. Cracking an open safe: HAZUS vulnerability functions in terms of structure-independent spectral acceleration. Earthquake Spectra 25 (2), 361-378,
Porter, K.A., R.P. Kennedy, and R.E. Bachman, 2007. Creating fragility functions for performance-based earthquake engineering. Earthquake Spectra 23 (2), May 2007, 471-489, DOI:10.1193/1.2720892
Porter, K.A., R.O. Hamburger, and R.P Kennedy, 2007. Practical development and application of fragility functions. Proc. SEI Structures Congress, May 16-19, 2007, Long Beach CA.
Fragility and vulnerability of lifelines
Porter, K.A., 2018. Groundproofing a new model for estimating earthquake damage and planning recovery. Source, 32 (2), p. 40-43, www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2018-AWWA-Source.pdf Porter, K.A., McMullin, R., Terentieff, S.V., Wollbrinck, J., and Irias, X., 2018. Applying the model. Source, 32 (2), p. 43-45,
Porter, K.A., 2018. A new model of water-network resilience, with application to the HayWired scenario. Detweiler S.T. and Wein, A.M., eds, The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Engineering Implications. Scientific Investigations Report 2017–5013–I–Q, Reston, VA: United States Geological Survey, ch. N., p. 195-264, https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20175013 and www.sparisk.com/pubs/HayWired-2018-vol2.pdf
Scawthorn, C.R., K.A., Porter, and F.T. Blackburn, 1992. Performance of emergency-response services after the earthquake. In T.D. O’Rourke, ed., The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989-Marina District. Strong Motion and Ground Failure. U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 1551-F. Reston VA, p. F195-F215.
Porter, K.A. C. Scawthorn, D.G. Honegger, T.D. O’Rourke, and F. Blackburn, 1992. Performance of water supply pipelines in liquefied soil. Proceedings of the 4th US-Japan Workshop on Earthquake Disaster Prevention for Lifeline Systems, Los Angeles, CA, USA, 08/19-21/91; pp. 3-17. 1992.
Disaster planning scenarios: ShakeOut, ARkStorm, SAFRR Tsunami, and HayWired Scenario
Porter, K.A. (2018). Overview of the HayWired scenario engineering-implications volume. Detweiler, S.T. and Wein, A.M., eds., The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Engineering Implications. Scientific Investigations Report 2017–5013–I–Q, Reston, VA: United States Geological Survey, ch. I, p. 2-11, https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20175013 and www.sparisk.com/pubs/HayWired-2018-vol2.pdf
Hudnut, K.W., Wein, A.M., Cox, D.A., Perry, S.C., Porter, K.A., Johnson, L.A., and Strauss, J.A. (2017). The HayWired scenario—how can the San Francisco Bay region bounce back from or avert an earthquake disaster in an interconnected world? In Detweiler S.T. and Wein, A.M., eds., The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Earthquake Hazards. Scientific Investigations Report 2017–5013–A–H, Reston, VA: United State Geological Survey, ch A., p. 1-16, https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20175013 and www.sparisk.com/pubs/HayWired-2017-vol1.pdf
Aagaard, B.T., Boatwright, J.L., Jones, J.L., MacDonald, T.G., Porter, K.A., and Wein, A.M. (2017). HayWired scenario mainshock ground motions. In Detweiler S.T. and Wein, A.M., eds., The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Earthquake Hazards. Scientific Investigations Report 2017–5013–A–H, Reston, VA: United State Geological Survey, ch C., p. 27-36, https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20175013 and www.sparisk.com/pubs/HayWired-2017-vol1.pdf [/expander_maker]
Wein, A.M., Felzer, K.R., Jones, J.L., and Porter, K.A. (2017). HayWired Scenario Aftershock Sequence. In Detweiler S.T. and Wein, A.M., eds., The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Earthquake Hazards. Scientific Investigations Report 2017–5013–A–H, Reston, VA: United State Geological Survey, ch G., p. 91-112, https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20175013 and www.sparisk.com/pubs/HayWired-2017-vol1.pdf
Porter, K., S. Terentieff, R. McMullin, and X. Irias, 2017. Water supply damage, recovery, and lifeline interaction in an earthquake sequence. Proc. First Congress on Technical Advancement, September 10-13, 2017, Duluth, Minnesota. Reston Virginia: American Society of Civil Engineers. 12 p.
Porter, K.A., and A.M. Wein, 2014. Engineering and economic lessons of the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. Proceedings of the 10th National Conference on Earthquake Engineering, 21-25 July 2014, Anchorage AK
Porter, K.A., and A.M. Wein, 2014. Advances in tsunami risk assessment. SSA 2014, 2 May 2014, Anchorage AK
Porter, K., 2014. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario, a Presentation to NORTHCOM Joint Interagency Coordination Group, 25 Feb 2014, Colorado Springs CO.
Porter, K., W. Byers, D. Dykstra, A. Lim, P. Lynett, J. Ratliff, C. Scawthorn, A. Wein, and R. Wilson, 2013. The SAFRR tsunami scenario—physical damage in California. S. Ross and L. Jones, Eds, The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario. US Geological Survey.
Ross, S.L., L.M. Jones, K. Miller, K.A. Porter, A. Wein, R.I. Wilson, B. Bahng, A. Barberopoulou, J.C. Borrero, D.M. Brosnan, J.T. Bwarie, E.L. Geist, L.A. Johnson, S.H. Kirby, W.R. Knight, K. Long, P. Lynett, C.E. Mortensen, D.J. Nicolsky, S.C. Perry, G.S. Plumlee, C.R. Real, K. Ryan, E. Suleimani, H.K. Thio, V.V. Titov, P.M. Whitmore, and N.J. Wood, 2013. The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) tsunami scenario—executive summary and Introduction. S. Ross and L. Jones, Eds, The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario. US Geological Survey.
Ross, S.L., Jones, L.M., Miller, K., Porter, K.A., Wein, A., Wilson, R.I., Bahng, B., Barberopoulou, A., Borrero, J.C., Brosnan, D.M., Bwarie, J.T., Geist, E.L., Johnson, L.A., Kirby, S.H., Knight, W.R., Long, K., Lynett, P., Mortensen, C.E., Nicolsky, D.J., Perry, S.C., Plumlee, G.S., Real, C.R., Ryan, K., Suleimani, E., Thio, H., Titov, V.V., Whitmore, P.M., and Wood, N.J., 2013, The SAFRR tsunami scenario—Improving resilience for California: U.S. Geological Survey Fact Sheet 2013–3081, 4 p.,
Porter, K., L Jones, S Ross, J Borrero, J Bwarie, D Dykstra, EL Geist, L Johnson, S Kirby, K Long, P Lynett, K Miller, C Mortensen, S Perry, G Plumlee, C Real, L Ritchie, C Scawthorn, HK Thio, A Wein, P Whitmore, R Wilson, and N Wood, 2013. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. Proc., PORTS ’13, August 25-28, Seattle WA. manuscript: https://sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2013-COPRI-Tsunami-MS.pdf, conference presentation: https://sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2013-COPRI-Tsunami-presentation.pdf
Porter, K., A. Wein, C. Alpers, A. Baez, P. Barnard, J. Carter, A. Corsi, J. Costner, D. Cox, T. Das, M. Dettinger, J. Done, C. Eadie, M. Eymann, J. Ferris, P. Gunturi, M. Hughes, R. Jarrett, L. Johnson, H.D. Le-Griffin, D. Mitchell, S. Morman, P. Neiman, A. Olsen, S. Perry, G. Plumlee, M. Ralph, D. Reynolds, A. Rose, K. Schaefer, J. Serakos, W. Siembieda, J. Stock, D. Strong, I.S. Wing, A. Tang, P. Thomas, and K. Topping, 2010. Overview of the ARkStorm Scenario. U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2010-1312, 183 pp. and appendices,
Porter, K., K. Hudnut, S. Perry, M. Reichle, C. Scawthorn, and A. Wein, 2011. Foreword. Earthquake Spectra 27 (2), 235-237.
Porter, K., L. Jones, D. Cox, J. Goltz, K. Hudnut, D. Mileti, S. Perry, D. Ponti, M. Reichle, A.Z. Rose, C.R. Scawthorn, H.A. Seligson, K.I. Shoaf, J. Treiman, and A. Wein, 2011. The ShakeOut Scenario: a hypothetical Mw7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault. Earthquake Spectra 27 (2), 239-261,
Utility performance panels in the ShakeOut Scenario. Earthquake Spectra 27 (2), 443-458,
Porter, K.A., 2008. The ShakeOut Scenario, A Hypothetical M7.8 Southern San Andreas Fault Earthquake. Structure Magazine, Dec 2008, 16-19.
Jones, L.M., R. Bernknopf, D. Cox, J. Goltz, K. Hudnut, D. Mileti, S. Perry, D. Ponti, K. Porter, M. Reichle, H. Seligson, K. Shoaf, J. Treiman, and A. Wein, 2008. The ShakeOut Scenario. U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2008-1150 and California Geological Survey Preliminary Report 25
USGS. (2003). “The Plan to Coordinate Nehrp Post-Earthquake Investigations.” USGS Circular 1242, Thomas L. Holzer (Chair), Roger D. Borcherdt, Craig D. Comartin, Robert D. Hanson, Charles R. Scawthorn, Kathleen Tierney, T. Leslie Youd, ed., prepared in coordination with the Federal Emergency Management Agency, National Science Foundation, and National Institute of Standards and Technology, USGS Western Region, Menlo Park CA.
Holzer, T. L., Scawthorn, C., and Rojahn, C. (2005). “Coordinating Nehrp Post-Earthquake Investigations – Exercising the Plan.” Earthquake Spectra, 21(4), 1043-1062. Earthquake Spectra 2005
Hurricanes, atmospheric rivers, and wind hazard
Porter, K.A., 2008. 0.05-degree Gridded Wind Hazard of the United States. SPA Risk LLC, Denver CO
Mosqueda, G. and K.A. Porter, 2006. Preliminary conclusions: assessing damage to engineered buildings in the wake of Hurricane Katrina. Structural Engineer, February 2006, 20-26.
Casualty loss estimation
Porter, K.A., and Jones, J.L., 2018. How many injuries can be avoided in the HayWired Scenario through earthquake early warning and drop, cover, and hold on? Detweiler S.T. and Wein, A.M., eds, The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Engineering Implications. Scientific Investigations Report 2017–5013–I–Q, Reston, VA: United States Geological Survey, ch. Q., p. 401-429, https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20175013 and www.sparisk.com/pubs/HayWired-2018-vol2.pdf
Acceptable risk
Porter, K.A., 2018. Not safe enough—a survey of public preferences for the seismic performance of new buildings in California and the New Madrid Seismic Zone. Detweiler, S.T. and Wein, A.M., eds., The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Engineering Implications. Scientific Investigations Report 2017–5013–I–Q, Reston, VA: United States Geological Survey, ch. L, p. 79-96, https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20175013 and www.sparisk.com/pubs/HayWired-2018-vol2.pdf
Porter, K.A., 2018. Is life safety enough?
Improvements in earthquake science and risk reduction. American Association for the Advancement of Science 2018 Annual Meeting, February 15-19, 2018, Austin, Texas,
Davis, M. and K. Porter, 2016. The public’s role in seismic design provisions. Earthquake Spectra, preprint, doi:10.1193/081715EQS127M
Porter, K. and M. Davis, 2015. Not safe enough: the public’s expectations of seismic performance. Journal of the National Institute of Building Sciences, 3 (5) 22-25.
Porter, K.A., 2014. Safe enough? How buildings codes protect our lives but not our cities. Proceedings of the 10th National Conference on Earthquake Engineering, 21-25 July 2014, Anchorage AK.
Porter, K.A., 2013. Safe enough? How buildings codes protect our lives but not our cities. Phi Beta Kappa Northern California Association 26th Asilomar Conference, February 15-18, 2012, and University of Colorado Boulder SESM Seminar 1 Mar 2013.
Porter, K.A., C. Scawthorn, C. Taylor, N. Blais, 1998. Appropriate Seismic Reliability for Critical Equipment Systems: Recommendations Based on Regional Analysis of Financial and Life Loss. MCEER-98-0016, Multidisciplinary Center for Earthquake Engineering Research, State University of New York, Buffalo, NY, 104 pp.
Real-time loss estimation
Wald, D., K.W. Lin, K. Porter, and L. Turner, 2008. ShakeCast: automating and improving the use of ShakeMap for post-earthquake decision-making and response. Earthquake Spectra, 24 (2), 533-553.
Porter, K.A., J.L. Beck, J.Y. Ching, and J. Mitrani-Reiser, 2004. Real-Time Loss Estimation for Instrumented Buildings. Report EERL 2004-08, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA.
Porter, K.A., J. Mitrani-Reiser, J.L. Beck, and J.Y, Ching, 2006. Smarter structures: real-time loss estimation for instrumented buildings, paper NCEE-1236. Proc., 8th National Conference on Earthquake Engineering, April 18-22, 2006, San Francisco, CA.